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协议刚落地，沙特就被炸了，土巴直接装死，中东版北约成了笑话！,兵器展望,原创 协议刚落地，沙特就被炸了，土巴直接装死，中东版北约成了笑话！_我的网站

A |     8月7日签署的《麦加共同防务协议》一时间吸引了全球的关注。

B |     "Gov. Abbott is right; the Biden policies are directly responsible for encouraging migrants to pay smugglers to bring them across the border illegally, and for enriching the smuggling organizations to the extent that they have expanded their deadly business so much over the last 18 months," says Jessica M Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies based in Washington, DC.,She believes that "until the Biden policies are changed to deter and prevent these mass illegal crossings and to impose consequences on illegal migrants, it’s only going to continue and to get worse.","It’s not possible to curb the illegal migration without policy changes," Vaughan insists.,Following Joe Biden's decision to reverse his predecessor's border policies, the number of illegal entries started to rise. On March 10, 2021, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered 100,441 persons attempting entry along the southwest border in February 2021, which represented a 28% increase over January 2021, when Biden was sworn in. US immigration experts noted at that time that Biden's campaign vows to impose a deportation moratorium, extend protections for those called "Dreamers" and provide a path to citizenship for about 11 million illegals, invigorated migrant caravans.,Melting Pot: How Biden's Immigration Reform May Backfire on US Economy & His Political Future19 January 2021, 20:10 GMT,The US Customs and Border Protection reported in June 2022 about a staggering 239,416 encounters along the southwest land border in May, which represented a 2% increase compared to April. Of those, 25% involved individuals who had at least one prior encounter in the previous 12 months, the report reads. The flow of illicit narcotics including cocaine, methamphetamines, heroin, fentanyl, and marijuana across the border has also been increasing, according to the CBP.,The unfolding border crisis has long been in the making, according to Dr. Aileen Teague, an immigration expert from the Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service.,"President Biden's current immigration policies are not solely his," she says. "They follow decades of an inability to reach consensus on both sides of the aisle. Biden has been a bit 'wishy washy' on Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) and telling immigrants to 'not come' soon after entering the White House, but besides a murky rhetoric of reform, many of 'his' policies long predate his presidency.",Border Crisis: Who Wants to Flood the US With Migrants and Why?21 March 2021, 16:26 GMT,What's Behind the Federal Government's Inaction?,Last week, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs described the situation at the US-Mexico border as "overrun," "out of control" and "dangerous". He also predicted more deaths would soon be discovered. Nevertheless, "the federal government has not lifted a finger to help the states cope with this influx," according to Vaughan.,"The reason that the Biden administration has not acted to regain control of the border is because they are not concerned about the harm to American communities that this crisis is causing," she says. "They are isolated from its costs, and they hope to reap political benefits, in the form of support from the special interests who profit from this influx, which include certain big businesses, ethnic advocacy groups, and a few leftist politicians.",Republicans are accusing the Democrats of deliberately loosening border policies and promising to legalize illegals to beef up their electoral base. Immigration reform could become an "electoral bonanza" for the Dems, Politico noted in April 2013. At the same time, a 2013 Pew Research revealed that of the Latino immigrants who are eligible to vote, "many more identify as Democrats than as Republicans – 54% versus 11%.",Meanwhile, many powerful US business lobbies such as the agricultural industry, rely on exploiting cheap and illegal non-citizens for seasonal labor. Out of 11.3 million illegals, eight million have jobs, according to CBS News. The basic rights of these unauthorized workers aren't protected. In addition to that, big business capitalizes on mass immigration to drive wages down and to combat organized labor.,DeSantis Advises Migrants Escorted to Washington DC: 'Do Not Come' to Florida14 April, 17:35 GMT,Local Leaderships Struggle With Illegal Entries,Some Republican-controlled states have tried to tackle the border crisis through a series of local legislative initiatives and border operations.,In particular, the Texas governor and attorney general withstood Biden's executive order signed on day one of his presidency stipulating a 100-day pause on the deportation of illegal immigrants. On March 5, 2021, Gov. Abbott kicked off Operation Lone Star, bringing together the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard to prevent Mexican cartels and other smugglers from moving drugs and people into the state.,"State and local leaders along the border and beyond should be using any and all state authorities to disrupt human smuggling and trafficking pathways using existing laws," says Vaughan. "In addition, they should try to discourage or penalize the NGOs and other entities that contract with the federal government to resettle the migrants, including the child welfare agencies, charter transportation companies and charity assistance groups.",However, the fight to curb the tide of illegal migration could be accompanied with human right abuses, warns Aileen Teague:,"Local leadership in many places supports grassroots initiatives to ensure that outside of politics, immigration policies don't have offshoots that affect human rights," she says. "In the absence of hire level reforms, initiatives of basic human decency are badly needed as are local and mid-level leaders who are willing to share their experiences.",© AFP 2022 / DREW ANGERERWASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives to speak about Covid-19 vaccines for children, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC.WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives to speak about Covid-19 vaccines for children, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC.© AFP 2022 / DREW ANGERER,Are Migrant Deaths Yet Another Punch to Biden?,The latest gruesome discovery of 51 dead migrants in Texas could deal "another blow to Biden’s presidency and will further tarnish his legacy of incompetence in the minds of voters," according to Vaughan.,A number of Republican politicians have already raised their voices against the Democratic administration's handling of the border issue.,"How many more people have to die before Dems give a da--?" asked Texas Senator Ted Cruz commenting on the matter, as quoted by Fox News.,GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales from Texas criticized US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas for the suffocation deaths of trafficked migrants:,"Today in San Antonio it was 102 degrees. Imagine being abandoned inside an 18-wheeler left to die - 42 people died today - will @AliMayorkas even mention their names?" Gonzales tweeted.,However, given that Joe Biden and the Dems have a lot on their plate, including disrupted supply chains, growing inflation and looming recession, it's unlikely that the recent tragedy would make the matters any worse, some observers believe. Possibly, the Texan tragedy will be also overshadowed by the nation-wide debate on the Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion ruling, according to Teague.,"I'm not convinced that Biden's immigration and border security policies will be detrimental to the Democrats at midterms," she presumes.。沙特、土耳其和巴基斯坦这三个国家的合作，曾被外界视为可能重塑该地区安全格局的关键一步。然而，令人意想不到的是，就在协议刚刚落地不久，胡塞武装便以无人机直击沙特吉赞阿美炼油厂，瞬间引发了火光四起的危机。    更令人失望的是，土耳其与巴基斯坦对此并没有给予实质性的军事回应，沙特只能孤军奋战，面对这一波骤然袭来的“现实考验”。如此尴尬的局面让人疑惑，这份备受期待的协议究竟是否能够经受住时间的检验？    观察沙特，这个拥有丰富石油资源的国家，从过去的“以石油换安全”模式转向如今的主动寻求防务同盟，不得不承认这是极具战略意义的自救之举。

C | 过去几十年里，沙特在美国的保护伞下开展多项政策，但近年来情势却急剧变化。

D | 美军在中东的撤军与防空装备的削减，让沙特对安全的依赖变得愈发不安。特别是2019年，沙特的重要石油设施遭受空袭，尽管美国进行了有限支援，但造成的影响依然波及全球油价。

E |         意识到外部力量的脆弱，沙特决定以地区内部的伙伴关系来寻求更为持久的安全保障。于是，土耳其与巴基斯坦成为了沙特的“新朋友”。

F | 土耳其在北约内拥有第二大常规军队，其军工体系的完备令其成为可靠的合作对象；而巴基斯坦不仅具备核威慑能力，与沙特的历史军事合作更是让双方之间的联系愈发紧密。    沙特在构建这一同盟时，也未能顾及到三国之间存在的根本利益差异。沙特面临的主要威胁是来自于胡塞武装，而土耳其则需兼顾中东与高加索的多重策略，巴基斯坦的安全重心则始终放在南亚。

G | 这让原本设想中的“防御网络”变得有些不堪一击。    表面上看，《麦加共同防务协议》星光熠熠，然而现实却给了它一记响亮的耳光。由于协议细节没有公开，因此在遭遇胡塞武装的无人机攻击后，沙特没有启动事先规定的援助程序。

H | 协议只是政治宣言，缺乏实质性的军事框架。面对持续的威胁与空袭，沙特并未真正落实协议的内容，更谈不上呼吁其他两国的支援。        更糟糕的是，遭袭的吉赞炼油厂是沙特南部重要的能源节点，日产量接近40万桶，相当于沙特经济的命脉。胡塞武装的袭击让外界看到，武装组织用低成本的无人机发动攻击，足以撕开看似坚固的联盟，尤其是在缺乏必要的反制措施时。    而对于土耳其和巴基斯坦来说，此次事件更多的是一次外交上的回避。

I | 两国的官方表态只是笼统地呼吁和平与谴责暴力，并未针对协议提出任何积极应对。这种“装死”的态度使得许多人对三国的合作前景产生了质疑。    面对这一切，伊朗果断表态认为：“单靠一纸协议无法换取真正的安全。

J | ”正如沙特过去依赖美国的结果一样，只凭借盟约不能避免更大的风险与挑战。

K | 伊朗的指责点明了当前局势的核心，即安全的真正根源在于对地区政策的深刻调整，而非寄希望于军事同盟。这一观点不仅适用于沙特，同时也对整个中东地区的国家敲响了警钟。        就目前来看，《麦加共同防务协议》的生存之道并不在于当前的军事响应能力，而是在于如何将各成员国的利益对齐，建立更加紧密的合作机制。

L | 军事同盟不是一次会议、几封文件就可以简单完成，它需要具体的执行规则、统一的指挥体系以及切实可行的情报共享机制。    未来，如果中东国家希望实现长久的安全，那么就必须加强同盟的配套机制，厘清权责边界，甚至是回归到对话谈判上，以化解冲突根源。或许，这次《麦加共同防务协议》的试炼并不是结束，而是开启了新的讨论。

M | 虽然外界对于其未来的期待需要回归理性，但只要各国愿意共同努力，或许能在中东这片纷繁复杂的土地上找到新的和平出路。

N | 返回，查看更多。

o |

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Published on:02:13:58